BNMC(SH:601011) Jin Tou Wang·2025-10-11 06:05Market Review - The main contract for coking coal futures closed at 1646.5 CNY/ton, a slight decrease of 0.90% [1] Fundamental Summary - The China Coastal Bulk Freight Index (CBFI) is reported at 1027.14 points, while the China Coastal Coal Freight Index (CBCFI) increased by 5.8% to 698.59 points [2] - Baotailong (601011) announced a comprehensive overhaul of its coke oven equipment scheduled for October 2024, which has been completed. The upgraded coke oven incorporates advanced environmental technology and intelligent equipment, aligning with national green and low-carbon development policies, enhancing product quality and market competitiveness. The company will assess economic benefits based on market conditions to determine the specific timing for resuming operations [2] - The capacity utilization rate for independent coking enterprises is 75.18%, an increase of 0.05%. The average daily output of coke is 66.12, up by 0.04, while coke inventory stands at 63.84, an increase of 1.53. The total inventory of coking coal is 959.06, down by 78.65, with available days of coking coal at 10.9 days, a decrease of 0.9 days [2] Institutional Perspectives - According to Everbright Futures, the supply side has stabilized as coking enterprises maintain normal production levels following the first round of price increases, alleviating profit pressures. However, demand has been affected by holiday logistics and rainfall in northern regions, leading to a decrease in inventory at steel mills and a general pressure on prices, resulting in limited replenishment of raw materials. Short-term expectations indicate wide fluctuations in coking coal prices [3] - Jinrui Futures notes that during the National Day holiday, pig iron production remained high, leading to a reduction in overall supply and an increase in demand for coking coal, accelerating inventory depletion and igniting expectations for replenishment post-holiday. However, due to significant inventory accumulation during the holiday and shrinking profits for steel mills, the outlook for steel demand in the fourth quarter appears weak, suggesting limited replenishment efforts and a pessimistic short-term price outlook for coking coal. Recommendations include short-selling strategies, with risks associated with unexpected growth in steel demand and tighter supply of dual coking coal [3]