沥青库存压力增加 预计期货盘面短线走势震荡偏弱

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals showed a significant decline, particularly in asphalt futures, which experienced a downward trend with the main contract closing at 3307.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 1.17% [1] Supply Side - Asphalt production capacity increased by 5.7 percentage points to 40.1% compared to the previous week before the National Day holiday, which is 12.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] - In October, domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.682 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.4 thousand tons (0.1% reduction) month-on-month, but an increase of 350 thousand tons (15.0% increase) year-on-year [1] Demand Side - Intermittent rainfall in southern regions has hindered construction activities, coupled with ongoing financial pressures on downstream sectors, leading to low procurement levels and weak transactions for high-priced resources [1] Market Outlook - The industry data from the fourth week of September indicates strong supply and demand from refineries, with the operating rate rising above 40% for the first time in two years, and strong shipment volumes due to pre-holiday stockpiling [1] - Despite a rebound in factory inventory due to robust operations, social inventory continues to decline, and the current curve remains significantly behind the same period in previous years, which may limit the upward potential for asphalt prices as the peak season progresses [1] - Overnight external oil prices showed a slight decline, suggesting a weak short-term outlook for asphalt prices [1]