印尼B50政策取得新进展 短期内棕榈油宽幅震荡

Market Review - Palm oil futures for the main contract slightly declined by 0.86%, closing at 9406.00 CNY/ton [1] Fundamental Summary - The Malaysian government projected in its 2026 budget report that the average crude palm oil price for next year is expected to be between 3900-4100 MYR per ton due to increased global production and other vegetable oils [2] - According to shipping survey agency ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1-10 reached 523,602 tons, a 9.86% increase compared to 476,610 tons during the same period last month [2] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) reported that as of the end of September, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 7.20% month-on-month, reaching 2.361 million tons [2] Institutional Perspectives - Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures noted that macroeconomic factors, including the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, have led to a vacuum in economic data releases and a rise in the U.S. dollar index; palm oil production is entering the off-season, with supply expectations tightening and demand from Indonesia's B40 and Indian imports remaining strong, leading to a forecasted decline in Malaysian palm oil inventory [3] - Zhonghui Futures highlighted that the Indonesian government is considering setting a mandatory bioethanol content standard of 10% in gasoline to expand the use of biofuels made from palm oil and sugarcane; the B50 biodiesel policy is making progress with road trials starting, which is expected to significantly increase future demand for palm oil and support prices [3]