10月鸡蛋实际供应压力或依然较大 蛋价重心仍将下移

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the domestic laying hen inventory continues to rise, leading to a downward trend in egg prices due to supply pressure [1][2] - In September, the national laying hen inventory reached approximately 1.368 billion, with a month-on-month increase of 0.22% and a year-on-year increase of 6.05%, contributing to significant supply pressure [2][4] - The average price of eggs in major production areas was 3.49 yuan per jin, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 14.05% but a year-on-year decrease of 28.92% [2] Group 2 - The number of new laying hens in September was high, with around 90 million chicks added, despite a month-on-month decrease of 4.27% [4] - The profit per kilogram of eggs in September was 0.26 yuan, which is a month-on-month increase of 0.45 yuan, but the increase in the number of hens slaughtered was less than expected [4][7] - In October, the laying hen inventory is expected to decrease slightly to around 1.367 billion, but actual inventory may differ due to uncertainties in the slaughter of hens [5][8] Group 3 - October is traditionally a low-demand season for eggs, which may lead to a further decline in egg prices and potential losses for farmers, prompting them to slaughter hens earlier [8] - The expected decrease in the laying hen inventory in October may be more significant than theoretical estimates, potentially dropping to around 1.36 billion [8]