Has Rocket Lab's Stock Peaked?

Core Viewpoint - Rocket Lab's stock has surged approximately 500% over the past year, raising concerns about its valuation and potential for a decline [1][2]. Financial Performance - Rocket Lab's revenue increased from $62 million in 2021 to over $436 million in 2024, while losses rose from $117 million to $190 million during the same period [2]. - The company's market capitalization is around $28 billion, leading to questions about whether too much growth is already priced into the stock [2]. Valuation Metrics - The stock trades at nearly 60 times its trailing revenue and 40 times its book value, indicating a high premium that may not be justified given the company's lack of profitability [3][11]. - Analysts consider the stock to be heavily overvalued, with a consensus 12-month price target of just over $42, which is 27% lower than the current price [9]. Growth Catalysts - The upcoming launch of Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket, which can carry larger payloads than the current Electron rocket, is seen as a potential growth driver [6]. - A successful inaugural launch of the Neutron rocket could lead to increased excitement and contract opportunities for the company [7]. Market Sentiment - Despite the high valuation, the stock reached a new 52-week high, suggesting ongoing investor interest as anticipation builds around the Neutron launch [10]. - There is a risk that the stock may experience a "sell-the-news" moment following the launch, where investors might sell shares after a successful event [8].