供应压力逐步提升 东南沿海10月玉米价格或逐步下跌、南北港价差料收窄

Core Viewpoint - The corn market in Southeast coastal regions is expected to experience a price decline in October due to increasing supply pressures and stable demand conditions, with prices projected to drop by approximately 20 yuan/ton in the early part of the month [1][7]. Price Trends - In September, the corn prices in Southeast coastal regions initially rose to 50-60 yuan/ton before stabilizing, with prices at Shekou Port reaching around 2410 yuan/ton by September 26, an increase of 60 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month [1]. - Northern ports saw a different trend, with prices at 2280 yuan/ton by September 26, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the start of the month and 30 yuan/ton from September 10 [1]. - The theoretical trade margin between northern and southern ports averaged 9.5 yuan/ton in September, reflecting an increase of 72.5 yuan/ton month-on-month [1]. Supply and Inventory - The inventory of corn in southern ports decreased, with approximately 330,000 tons reported by September 25, indicating a higher turnover compared to the previous year [3]. - Northern port inventories have been declining since Q2, with a total of about 1.5 million tons by the end of September, which is slightly lower than the previous year [4]. Demand Factors - The demand for corn in the Southeast coastal region has been relatively stable, with downstream enterprises maintaining corn inventories at around 25 days, consistent with historical levels [5]. - The expectation for October is that demand will not significantly increase, as enterprises are likely to transition between old and new stocks without raising inventory levels [5]. Future Outlook - The corn market is anticipated to transition to new season corn in October, with limited supply in the early part of the month and potential price drops to between 2380-2400 yuan/ton [7]. - By mid to late October, increased supply pressures and competitive trading conditions may lead to further price declines, with projections of prices falling to between 2330-2350 yuan/ton [7].