成本支撑减弱 焦炭上方价格有所承压

Group 1 - During the National Day holiday, major steel mills implemented a price increase for coke, with the first round of price adjustments occurring on October 1, resulting in an increase of 55 CNY/ton for solid dry coke and 50 CNY/ton for solid wet coke [1] - As of October 11, the price of first-grade coke is reported at 980 CNY/ton, while second-grade coke is at 1200 CNY/ton, and premium metallurgical coke is priced at 1900 CNY/ton in Henan Province [2] - The futures market saw the main contract for coke closing at 1646.5 CNY/ton, with a daily trading volume of 8796 lots, reflecting a decrease of 0.90% [2] Group 2 - A survey of 230 independent coke enterprises indicated a capacity utilization rate of 74.95%, a slight decrease of 0.05%, with an average daily coke production of 52.86 thousand tons, down by 0.03 thousand tons [3] - Coke inventory increased by 3.53 thousand tons to 42.54 thousand tons, while the total inventory of coking coal decreased by 69.15 thousand tons to 819.32 thousand tons, with available days of coking coal at 11.7 days, down by 0.98 days [3] - On October 9, the Dalian Commodity Exchange reported an increase of 2150 lots in coke futures warehouse receipts compared to the previous trading day [4] Group 3 - The analysis from Guohai Liangshi Futures Research indicates that despite the price increase for coke, the production levels of independent coke enterprises and steel companies remained relatively stable during the holiday, leading to a limited decrease in overall coke production [4] - The profit margins for coke enterprises have improved due to the price increase, but the pressure for further price hikes remains significant due to the thin profit margins of steel companies [4] - It is expected that the iron output in October will maintain a high level of around 2.4 million tons, providing support for coke supply, although coke prices are under pressure from reduced cost support and accumulated steel inventory [4]