憋了20多年，中国打响夺回大宗商品定价权第一枪！

Core Viewpoint - China has taken a significant step by halting the purchase of iron ore from BHP in Australia priced in USD, indicating a strategic move to reclaim pricing power in the iron ore market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The cessation of USD-denominated iron ore purchases is seen as a tactical pause in commercial negotiations, marking the beginning of a long-awaited strategic offensive for pricing power that has been in the making for over two decades [2]. - China, as the world's largest steel producer, has historically been in a vulnerable position due to its heavy reliance on imported iron ore, primarily from Australia and Brazil, despite its dominant steel production capacity [3][4]. Group 2: Profit Disparity - The current pricing mechanism, heavily influenced by the Platts index, has led to a significant imbalance in profit distribution between upstream and downstream players, with Australian mining companies enjoying profit margins exceeding 150%, while Chinese steel producers face an average profit margin of only 0.71% in 2024 [4]. Group 3: Strategic Moves - To address the profit disparity, China has initiated a two-step strategy: first, consolidating its domestic steel industry to reduce competition and enhance bargaining power, exemplified by the merger of major steel companies [5][6]. - The second step involves seeking alternative sources of iron ore to break the existing monopoly, with significant investments in the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, which is expected to yield high-quality iron ore and reduce dependency on Australian suppliers [7][8]. Group 4: Future Prospects - The Simandou project is projected to produce between 120 million to 150 million tons of iron ore annually, with the first shipments expected as early as November [9][10]. - This strategic pivot not only strengthens China's position in the global iron ore market but also signals a shift in the global resource landscape, potentially diminishing Australia's market share if it continues to resist cooperation [10].