Core Viewpoint - Cloudwalk, a robotics service AI technology company, is set to launch its IPO on October 16, 2025, as the first listing under the new 18C special technology policy, with a pricing range of HKD 95.60 per share and a fundraising target between HKD 660 million to HKD 760 million, corresponding to a market capitalization of approximately HKD 6.57 billion to HKD 6.67 billion. Despite the positive listing momentum, the company faces significant underlying risks that warrant investor caution [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - Cloudwalk's revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 240 million (approximately HKD 270 million), slightly exceeding the minimum requirement of RMB 250 million for the past fiscal year. However, revenue has shown volatility, with figures of RMB 160 million, RMB 150 million, and RMB 240 million for 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively. The first five months of 2025 saw a 19% year-on-year revenue increase to RMB 90 million, but the sustainability of this growth remains uncertain [4][5]. - The company's gross margin has declined by 3.1 percentage points to 39.5% in the first five months of 2025, with losses expanding by 41% to RMB 120 million during the same period. This financial deterioration raises concerns about market confidence in its profitability [4][5]. Investment Structure - Unlike previous IPOs under the 18C policy, Cloudwalk has not secured cornerstone investors, which raises concerns about potential share price declines post-listing. Historical data indicates that IPOs without cornerstone investors have a 57% chance of falling below their listing price on the first day and a 71% chance of being below their listing price since then [2][4]. R&D Investment - Cloudwalk's R&D expenditure for 2024 is projected at RMB 57.39 million, accounting for only 23.4% of its revenue, a significant drop from 47.8% in 2023. This reduction in investment raises questions about the company's ability to maintain its technological edge in the robotics sector [7][8]. Market Valuation - The company's IPO valuation of approximately HKD 6.57 billion to HKD 6.67 billion represents a nearly 50% increase from its post-D round valuation of RMB 4.1 billion at the end of 2021. However, this valuation is the lowest among the four companies listed under the 18C policy, indicating a lack of market confidence in its growth potential [8][9]. Summary of Risks - The combination of no cornerstone investors, deteriorating financial metrics, tight cash flow, insufficient R&D investment, and a low market valuation collectively diminish Cloudwalk's investment appeal. Investors are advised to critically assess the company's long-term operational capabilities and inherent risks beyond the initial allure of being the first listing under the 18C reform [2][4][8].
云迹启动全球发售：2025年首单18C项目上市 无基石投资者站台 研发开支占比缩水超50%