Winners and losers from 2026 Medicare Advantage star ratings

Core Insights - Humana's membership in plans with at least 4 stars is projected to decrease to nearly 20% in 2026, down from 25% in 2025 [1] - UnitedHealthcare maintains a stable percentage of members in plans rated 4 stars or above, while Humana and Aetna see declines [2][7] - The average star ratings for Medicare Advantage (MA) plans have slightly increased from 3.96 to 3.98, contrary to expectations of lower scores [4][8] Company-Specific Summaries - Humana: The percentage of members in highly rated plans is expected to drop significantly, indicating potential challenges in maintaining competitive advantages [1][7] - UnitedHealthcare: Over 77% of its members will be in plans rated 4 stars or above, remaining stable compared to the previous year [2][7] - Aetna: Approximately 81% of its members will be in highly rated plans, a decrease from 89% in 2025, but still leading among peers [9] - Clover Health: The largest contract has fallen below the 4-star threshold, which could result in significant earnings losses, estimated in the tens of millions [6][14] - Elevance: The percentage of members in plans rated 4 stars or above has improved to 53%, up from about 40% [10] - Centene: Increased the percentage of members in highly rated plans from 1% to over 18% [11] Industry Trends - Insurers are competing aggressively for higher star ratings, which are linked to bonuses and competitive advantages in the MA program [3] - The release of the 2026 star ratings was delayed, possibly due to government shutdown impacts on communication [5] - The overall stability in average star ratings is seen as a positive sign for the industry, which had anticipated declines [8] - Insurers are adjusting their strategies, including reducing the number of states served and focusing on narrower networks to recover margins [17] - Companies like Humana are exploring contract diversification to improve member enrollment in higher-rated plans for future revenue benefits [18]