上海市汽车置换补贴将“摇号”，现车、展车或成窗口期“抢手货”

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Municipal Commission of Commerce announced adjustments to the 2025 automobile trade-in subsidy rules, effective from October 13 to December 31, focusing on a new application process and eligibility criteria for subsidies [1][3]. Summary by Sections Subsidy Application Process - The new subsidy application process requires personal consumers to register, participate in a public lottery, and obtain qualification to apply for the trade-in or replacement subsidies [3][4]. - Consumers who do not obtain qualification through the lottery will not have their subsidy applications accepted [1][3]. Eligibility Criteria - From October 13, consumers purchasing new vehicles must register them in Shanghai to qualify for the trade-in subsidy [3][4]. - Consumers who obtain a new vehicle sales invoice before October 12 but have not submitted a subsidy application can apply directly after completing vehicle registration before the deadline of January 10, 2026 [8]. Time Constraints - The "window period" for consumers to enjoy the "universal subsidy" is limited to two days, prompting urgency among potential buyers [4][11]. - Sales personnel from various automotive brands indicated that consumers must purchase existing stock vehicles to qualify for the subsidy within this short timeframe [4][11]. Regional Policy Adjustments - Other regions in China, such as Jiangsu, Hubei, and Chongqing, have tightened their trade-in subsidy policies, shifting to a "qualify first, purchase later" model [11]. - Some areas, including Qinghai and Guizhou, have even suspended their trade-in subsidies, although most regions are expected to maintain these policies throughout the year [11][12]. Market Outlook - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to allocate 69 billion yuan in special bonds to support local trade-in policies, suggesting that subsidies will not be exhausted in a concentrated manner [12]. - A significant portion of dealers (44.4%) remain optimistic about market sales, predicting a year-on-year growth of 5% to 10% in vehicle sales for the fourth quarter [12].