国际观察｜26年政治联盟破裂 日本进入“多党化时代”？

Core Viewpoint - The Komeito party's decision to exit the ruling coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) marks the end of a 26-year alliance, potentially leading Japan into a "multi-party era" [1][6]. Group 1: Reasons for the Split - The Komeito party's call for stricter regulations on political donations from businesses and organizations was not satisfactorily addressed by the LDP, prompting the split [2]. - The appointment of controversial figures within the LDP, such as Taro Aso and Koichi Hagiuda, has contributed to Komeito's dissatisfaction, as these individuals are viewed unfavorably by Komeito [2][3]. - The LDP's shift in focus towards courting other opposition parties, particularly the Constitutional Democratic Party, has further alienated Komeito, leading to a breakdown in trust [2]. Group 2: Political Implications - The upcoming prime ministerial election in the Diet is now significantly impacted, as Komeito has announced it will not support the LDP's candidate, making it difficult for the LDP to secure a majority [4]. - The potential for a more intense political struggle is anticipated, with opposition parties calling for unity to challenge the LDP's dominance [5]. - Analysts suggest that the dissolution of the coalition could lead to a political landscape similar to the fragmentation seen in the 1990s, where no single party can govern alone [6][7]. Group 3: Broader Trends - The exit of Komeito is seen as a significant turning point in Japanese politics, indicating a shift towards a fragmented political environment where traditional parties struggle to maintain control [6]. - The current political climate reflects a global trend of fragmentation, with rising populism and dissatisfaction with established parties [6][7].