美联储官员，释放降息大消息

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve officials are expressing mixed views on future interest rate cuts, with some advocating for caution due to persistent inflation risks while others are open to further cuts in response to a weakening labor market [2][4][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem supports further rate cuts as a precaution against a weakening labor market but emphasizes the need to remain vigilant against high inflation [2]. - Fed Governor Michael Barr calls for caution regarding further rate cuts, highlighting the potential for tariffs to contribute to sustained inflation [4][5]. - Fed Governor Christopher Waller identifies the labor market as a significant concern, suggesting that recent employment growth may have turned negative [7][8]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Musalem anticipates a gradual slowdown in the job market but acknowledges the possibility of a more rapid decline, with about 10% of current inflation attributed to tariffs [2]. - Waller notes that while the labor market is weak, economic growth appears robust, with an expected annualized GDP growth rate of nearly 4% for Q3 2025 according to the Atlanta Fed's model [8]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October has risen to 98.3%, with a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December at 91.7% [9].