美国，重大警告！

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns that the rapid growth of U.S. government debt, combined with escalating internal and external conflicts, is creating an atmosphere reminiscent of the pre-World War II era, posing a serious challenge to the existing order [1][2][3] Debt Growth and Economic Impact - As of October 2025, U.S. national debt is projected to exceed $37.86 trillion, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating that public debt will reach 99% of GDP in 2024 and 116% by 2034, the highest in U.S. history [2][7] - Dalio emphasizes that rising debt relative to income is squeezing available spending space, threatening the vitality of the U.S. economy [2][3] - The ongoing accumulation of debt is intertwined with increasing social division and geopolitical risks, creating a concerning environment [2][3] Political and Fiscal Challenges - Dalio attributes the debt crisis to political polarization in the U.S., advocating for a combination of increased tax revenue and spending cuts to address the "debt bomb" [2][3] - The Federal Budget Committee criticizes the current government shutdown as wasteful and meaningless, highlighting a projected federal deficit of $1.8 trillion for the fiscal year 2025 [7][8] - The CBO reports that rising costs in healthcare, social programs, and defense, coupled with tax policies that limit revenue growth, present ongoing fiscal challenges for the U.S. government [7][8] Recommendations and Future Outlook - Dalio suggests that the debt-induced crisis could manifest within two to three years under the current administration, potentially undermining the international status of the U.S. dollar and causing ripple effects in global markets [6][7] - The CRFB calls for urgent reforms to address long-term welfare program funding issues, particularly Medicare and Social Security, which are projected to face insolvency within seven years if not reformed [8]