贸易摩擦升级对A股有何影响 Q4风格侧重价值已现端倪

Core Viewpoint - Trump's reaffirmation of imposing tariffs if re-elected has raised concerns about escalating global trade tensions and inflation, leading to significant declines in major U.S. stock indices [1][3]. Market Impact - On October 10, U.S. stock indices experienced substantial declines: the Dow Jones fell by 878.82 points (1.90%), the S&P 500 dropped by 182.60 points (2.71%), and the Nasdaq decreased by 820.20 points (3.56%) [2][3]. - The decline was primarily driven by emotional reactions to Trump's tariff threats, with large tech stocks and Chinese concept stocks also experiencing downturns [2][4]. A-Share Market Outlook - Despite the external trade uncertainties, the medium-term outlook for the A-share market remains positive, with expectations for a style rebalancing in Q4, focusing on traditional value sectors such as real estate, brokerage, and consumer goods [2][5][6]. - Historical data indicates that similar market declines have occurred 21 times since 2020, often linked to sudden risks or macroeconomic shocks [3]. Emotional Market Sentiment - The CNN Fear & Greed Index for U.S. stocks dropped to around 29, indicating a shift to a "fear" dominated zone, down from a neutral position of 52 [5]. - The fundamental aspects and liquidity of the U.S. market have not been significantly affected, suggesting that the current market adjustment is primarily sentiment-driven [4][5]. Sector Performance - On October 10, a notable shift occurred in A-share market styles, with technology sectors declining significantly (e.g., the ChiNext index fell by 12.5%), while traditional value sectors like real estate and brokerage showed resilience [6]. - The report suggests that the market may experience increased volatility, often accompanied by a shift from high-growth to value styles, as seen in previous market cycles [6].