华金证券：十月慢牛趋势不变，风格难改

Core Viewpoint - The main factors influencing the A-share market in October are policies and external events, liquidity, and fundamentals, with historical data indicating a tendency for the market to be volatile during this month [2][3]. Policy and External Events - Positive policies and external events are crucial for potential A-share market gains, as seen in years like 2010, 2015, and 2020 when the Shanghai Composite Index rose in October following the implementation of the "Five-Year Plans" [2][3]. - Conversely, tightening policies or negative external shocks could lead to a weaker A-share market [2]. Liquidity - Liquidity is a significant factor affecting the A-share market in October; a loose liquidity environment may boost the market, as evidenced by events like the anticipated QE2 in 2010 and interest rate cuts by the central bank in 2015 [2][3]. - A tightening liquidity scenario could result in weaker market performance [2]. Earnings Reports - The third-quarter earnings reports are expected to have a substantial impact on the A-share market in October, with a potential structural recovery in profitability anticipated [3][5]. Current Market Outlook - The A-share market is likely to continue a slow bullish trend in October, supported by positive policy expectations and a potentially loose liquidity environment [3]. - Historical trends suggest that sectors related to technology and cyclical industries may outperform in October, particularly those aligned with the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4][5]. Sector Allocation - The technology and cyclical sectors are expected to remain favored in October, with recommendations to accumulate positions in technology, core assets, and cyclical industries [4][5]. - Specific industries such as computing, media, military, and new energy are projected to show strong earnings growth, while sectors with high economic activity are likely to be concentrated in technology and cyclical industries [5].