油价或下调，就在明晚

Core Viewpoint - The domestic retail price of refined oil is expected to decrease, marking the eighth reduction this year, as international crude oil prices have shown a downward trend, leading to a negative change rate for domestic reference crude oil prices [1][2]. Price Adjustment Summary - The latest data indicates that the retail price of gasoline and diesel is likely to be reduced by approximately 80 yuan per ton, following a negative change rate of -1.87% as of October 10 [2]. - Since 2025, there have been 19 rounds of adjustments in domestic refined oil retail prices, with a record of "six increases, seven decreases, and six stasis" [2]. Market Price Trends - As of October 10, the average market price for 92 gasoline was 7662 yuan per ton, down 1.03% from the previous adjustment cycle, while diesel averaged 6568 yuan per ton, down 0.91% [4]. - The recent price declines are attributed to increased pressure on refineries to reduce inventory during the dual holiday period of National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, coupled with falling international crude oil prices [4][5]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the ongoing increase in oil production by OPEC+ and a calming geopolitical situation will lead to a continued risk of oversupply in the crude oil market, with overall demand remaining weak [5]. - The current oversupply situation, along with geopolitical disturbances and macroeconomic factors, is expected to create volatility in oil price movements [5].