重要金属，供需生变

Core Points - The cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) will end on October 16, with new regulations implemented for annual export quotas starting from that date [1][2] - The DRC is the largest cobalt producer globally, accounting for 75.86% of the world's production in 2024 [2] Export Quota Management - The annual export quota for cobalt will be set based on the export performance of companies in 2022, 2023, and 2024, with a total export limit of 18,125 tons for the remainder of 2025 [1] - In 2026, the maximum export volume will be 96,600 tons, which includes a base quota of 87,000 tons and a strategic quota of 9,600 tons [1] - The export quotas for 2027 will remain the same as those for 2026 [1] Major Companies and Their Quotas - Luoyang Molybdenum Co. will receive a cobalt export quota of 6,500 tons in Q4 2025 and 31,200 tons in 2026, which is more than one-third of the DRC's 2026 base quota [1] - Despite this, the quotas are significantly lower than the company's production capacity, which is projected at 114,165 tons in 2024 [1] - Glencore will receive a cobalt export quota of 3,925 tons in Q4 2025 [2] Impact on Cobalt Prices - The export ban has led to a significant increase in cobalt prices, with the latest price for electrolytic cobalt in China reaching 349,500 yuan per ton, doubling since the beginning of the year [2] - The new export regulations are expected to have a major impact on the supply-demand dynamics of cobalt, likely pushing prices above 400,000 yuan per ton, which would positively affect company performance [2]