XRP Crashes 40%, Before Recovering, in Biggest One-Day Drop

Core Viewpoint - XRP experienced a significant decline, dropping as much as 42% in a single day due to whale liquidations and a substantial decrease in futures open interest, indicating forced deleveraging across corporate desks [1][2]. Price Action Summary - XRP's price fell from $2.82 to $2.36, marking a 16% daily loss, with intraday volatility peaking at 43% and a low of $1.64 reached during liquidation sweeps [2][5]. - The heaviest liquidation occurred between 15:00–21:00 UTC, with hourly volume hitting 817.6 million [5]. - Late-session buying helped stabilize the price near $2.35–$2.40, with accumulation volumes exceeding 12 million in the final 15 minutes [3]. Market Context - Ripple's ecosystem is under macro and structural stress due to global trade tensions, diverging central-bank policies, and uncertainty regarding U.S. digital banking licenses [4]. - The deadline for Ripple's National Trust charter passed on October 7, increasing regulatory risk premiums for XRP-linked institutional products [4]. Technical Analysis - Momentum indicators show RSI levels near multi-month lows, with expanding volatility bands suggesting potential base formation [6]. - Support is established around $2.30–$2.35, with extended downside risk to $2.22 if trading volume decreases [8]. - Resistance levels are layered at $2.84–$2.90, with $3.05 identified as a macro breakout trigger [8]. Trading Considerations - Traders are monitoring whether the $2.30 support zone will attract sustained whale accumulation and the potential rebuild of open interest following a $150 million contraction in derivatives markets [8]. - Regulatory clarity following the Ripple charter review could impact corporate adoption of XRP [8]. - Cross-asset spillover from Bitcoin's rally may lead to a relief rotation back into XRP, with technical confirmation needed above $2.90 to invalidate short-term bearish bias [8].