达利欧预警美债 “心脏病发作”：两三年倒计时，病根在何处？

Group 1 - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns about the rapid growth of U.S. government debt, likening it to a situation similar to pre-World War II, which threatens the international status of the dollar and the global economy [1][2] - As of October, the U.S. national debt exceeds $37.86 trillion, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating that public debt will reach 99% of GDP in 2024, projected to rise to 116% by 2034, the highest in U.S. history [1][2] - The recent U.S. government shutdown highlights the urgency of fiscal issues, affecting around 600,000 employees and leading to significant service disruptions [3] Group 2 - Dalio emphasizes that the debt crisis is intertwined with social division and geopolitical risks, suggesting that unresolved conflicts could lead to a form of internal strife in the U.S. [2][4] - The U.S. government's spending is significantly higher than its revenue, with a deficit rate of 6.4% in 2024, the highest for non-war, non-recession periods in history [4][5] - Investment strategies suggested by Dalio include allocating up to 15% of assets in gold, as concerns over inflation and a weakening dollar prompt investors to seek safe-haven assets [4]