全球白银市场正经历一场“流动性风暴”

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing a "liquidity storm," with significant price increases despite general pressure on commodity prices, driven by supply-demand imbalances and strong industrial demand [1][2][7]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of Friday, the London spot silver price rose by 1.87% to $50.126 per ounce, maintaining a historical high, significantly outperforming New York silver futures [1]. - The price spread between the near-month New York silver futures and London silver spot reached $2.73 per ounce, marking a high in recent years [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The London silver market has seen a one-third decline in inventory since mid-2021, with only 200 million ounces remaining, a 75% drop from the peak of over 850 million ounces in mid-2019 [4]. - Industrial demand, particularly from the photovoltaic and electric vehicle sectors, accounts for over 50% of silver consumption, with demand growth outpacing supply growth [4][5]. Group 3: Investment Trends - The total holdings of major overseas silver ETFs increased by 12.8% from February 6 to October 10, rising from 24,957 tons to 28,162 tons [5]. - The difference between London silver inventory and overseas ETF holdings exceeded 3,000 tons, indicating a significant lock-up of physical silver in ETFs [6]. Group 4: Market Conditions and Future Outlook - Current macroeconomic conditions, including loose fiscal and monetary policies in major economies, are providing upward pressure on silver prices [7]. - The potential for U.S. tariffs on silver poses a significant uncertainty for the market, with implications for inventory levels and price movements [8]. - The transition of silver from an "industrial metal" to a "store of value" asset may reshape market dynamics, with both investment and industrial demand supporting price increases [8].