摩根资产汤志恒：美元走弱利好亚洲股市 AI仍是美股市场核心增长引擎

Group 1: US Stock Market Insights - AI remains the core growth engine for the US stock market, with capital expenditure in the AI sector expected to grow by 33% in 2026 [2] - AI-related companies, although only about 30 in number within the S&P 500, account for 43% of the index's market capitalization, indicating their significant contribution to overall profitability [2] - Stock buybacks have exceeded $950 billion since 2025, primarily funded by company cash rather than debt, enhancing shareholder returns [2] Group 2: Consumer Spending and Economic Indicators - The US consumer sector is a key economic driver, with household debt levels at their lowest since 1960, supported by a recovering real estate and stock market [3] - Anticipated interest rate cuts are likely to lower consumer credit costs, further stimulating consumer demand and supporting the stock market [3] - Investors are advised to diversify their portfolios beyond US stocks due to high sensitivity to short-term news [3] Group 3: Asian Stock Market Outlook - The A-share market is becoming crucial for China's economic stability, with recent liquidity support and favorable policies aimed at a "slow bull" market [4] - Increased southbound capital flows and a shift in perception among fund managers from "underweight" to "overweight" in Chinese stocks could lead to significant capital inflows [4] - Historical trends show that a weaker dollar typically benefits Asian stock markets, with expectations of continued dollar weakness supporting this outlook [4] Group 4: High Dividend Stocks in Asia - Asian investors show a strong preference for high-dividend stocks, with increasing dividend payouts from companies in the region, particularly in Hong Kong and Japan [5] - Stable dividend policies can significantly support stock prices, making high-yield stocks a key investment focus [5]