日本政坛风云突变，“首位女首相”还有戏吗？｜国际识局

Core Points - The dissolution of the ruling coalition between the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito has created significant uncertainty in Japanese politics, particularly affecting the prospects of the newly elected LDP president, Sanae Takaichi, who was seen as a potential first female Prime Minister [1][2][5] Group 1: Coalition Breakdown - The LDP and Komeito's 26-year alliance ended due to structural contradictions and a political crisis, primarily stemming from a scandal involving political donations that led to declining support for the LDP [2][3] - Komeito's exit was unexpected and was driven by the LDP's failure to address demands for stricter political funding regulations, which Komeito sought to enhance its political integrity [2][3] - The ideological differences between the conservative LDP and the more centrist Komeito have been exacerbated by the LDP's shift towards a more aggressive military stance, creating a rift that contributed to the coalition's collapse [3][4] Group 2: Political Implications - Without Komeito's support, the LDP could lose between 25 to 45 seats in the upcoming 2024 House of Representatives election, severely undermining its governing foundation [4] - Takaichi's path to becoming Prime Minister is now fraught with challenges, as the LDP lacks a majority in both houses of the Diet, and Komeito has indicated it will not support her candidacy [5][6] - The potential for a united opposition among the three main opposition parties (Constitutional Democratic Party, National Democratic Party, and Japan Innovation Party) has increased, which could lead to a change in government if they agree on a unified candidate [6][7] Group 3: Future Political Landscape - The political landscape in Japan is expected to become more fragmented and unstable, with frequent changes in leadership and potential for a "twisted Diet" where no party holds a stable majority [8][9] - The possibility of early elections may arise as a means to resolve the political deadlock, but the LDP's current low approval ratings and the fallout from the donation scandal could hinder its chances [9][10] - The long-term effects of the coalition's dissolution may lead to a more multiparty system, with a focus on short-term governance rather than structural reforms, potentially exacerbating Japan's economic challenges and international relations [10][11]