生猪市场旺季不旺 周期磨底或将持续

Core Viewpoint - The domestic pig market is experiencing a downward trend in prices, with recent data indicating significant declines in both futures and spot markets, leading to losses for pig farming operations [1][2][3]. Price Trends - As of October 10, the futures market price for live pigs has dropped to 11,320 yuan/ton, down over 40% from the peak of 19,010 yuan/ton in August last year [1]. - The average selling price for live pigs has fallen below 12 yuan/kg, marking a near historical low [1]. - In September, major companies reported declines in average selling prices, with TianKang Biological at 12.17 yuan/kg (down 4.85% month-on-month), DaBeiNong at 12.91 yuan/kg (down from 13.67 yuan/kg), and New Hope at 12.89 yuan/kg (down 4.8% month-on-month and 31.47% year-on-year) [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side has seen concentrated pressure release, with forced sales of larger pigs contributing to a "stampede effect" in the market [3]. - Despite some supply-side capacity reduction efforts, the market remains imbalanced, with excess supply continuing to suppress prices [7][8]. - The average price for lean meat pigs has dropped to 11.69 yuan/kg, down 34.72% year-on-year [2]. Industry Losses - The pig farming industry is entering a phase of increased volume but declining prices, leading to micro-profit or loss situations [4]. - Current losses per head for self-breeding operations are approximately 135.62 yuan, while losses for purchased piglet operations reach 295.65 yuan [4]. - The theoretical profit for self-breeding and piglet fattening has shown a downward trend since mid-August, with losses reported at 206.91 yuan/head and 409.19 yuan/head, respectively [4]. Capacity Reduction Efforts - The effectiveness of capacity reduction measures has been limited, with the number of breeding sows only slightly decreasing while still remaining at normal levels [7][8]. - Despite some large enterprises reducing production, many smaller farms have not yet begun to cut back, contributing to ongoing supply excess [7]. Seasonal Demand - The recent National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, typically a peak demand period, did not meet expectations due to adverse weather conditions affecting consumption [9]. - Analysts predict that the market will remain in a bottoming phase, with potential for slight recovery in November as seasonal demand increases [9][10].