俄罗斯央行将保持长期紧缩态势

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia emphasizes maintaining price stability as its core objective amid a complex economic landscape characterized by demand-driven growth and increasing supply-demand imbalances [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Inflation - The Russian economy has been experiencing rapid growth driven by strong domestic demand, with rising household incomes, credit expansion, and fiscal stimulus contributing to this momentum [1]. - However, supply-side constraints, labor shortages, and external factors such as OPEC+ production limits have exacerbated supply-demand imbalances, leading to significant inflationary pressures [1][2]. - The Central Bank raised the benchmark interest rate from 16.00% to 21.00% between July and October 2024 to combat inflation [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The tightening monetary policy is showing effects, with rising market interest rates, cooling credit activity, and a gradual return to rational domestic demand [2]. - The Central Bank plans to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 21.00% until June 2025, followed by a reduction to 18.00% in mid-2025, and a current rate of 17% as of September [2]. - The Central Bank forecasts an average benchmark interest rate of 18.8% to 19.6% for 2025, decreasing to 12.0% to 13.0% in 2026, and further to 7.5% to 8.5% by 2027-2028 [4]. Group 3: External Environment and Economic Projections - The Central Bank anticipates that trade tensions among major economies will continue to suppress global demand growth, with oil prices expected to average $55 per barrel in 2025-2026 and rise to $60 per barrel in 2027-2028 [3]. - GDP growth is projected to slow to 1.0%-2.0% in 2025 and further to 0.5%-1.5% in 2026, with a return to potential growth rates of 1.5%-2.5% by 2027 [3]. - Inflation rates are expected to decrease to 6.0%-7.0% in 2025 and further to around 4.0% in 2026, stabilizing at that level in the long term [3]. Group 4: Fiscal Policy and Economic Stability - The Central Bank emphasizes that fiscal policy will significantly influence economic conditions in the coming years, necessitating adjustments in monetary policy based on fiscal parameters [5]. - A robust and balanced fiscal policy is deemed essential for maintaining macroeconomic stability, especially in the context of ongoing sanctions and global economic fragmentation [5]. - The overarching goal remains to maintain price stability, providing a stable environment for businesses and households, thereby enhancing the attractiveness of the ruble as a currency for savings and transactions [5][6].