22个州经济正在萎缩，消费者信心持续下跌，多家机构警告美国经济衰退

Core Viewpoint - Multiple financial institutions have issued warnings regarding the economic conditions in the United States, indicating that nearly half of the states are experiencing recession and contraction, with significant concerns about government spending, inflation, and tariff policies potentially leading to a recession by 2026 [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy showed a 3.8% quarter-on-quarter growth in Q2 2025, surpassing market expectations, yet the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, marking a near four-year high [2]. - Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi noted that 22 states are in recession or contraction, with the most severe impact felt in Washington D.C. due to federal layoffs and funding cuts [2]. - The economic downturn is not confined to specific regions but spans from the East Coast to the West Coast, with California and New York's economic stability being crucial for the national economy [2]. Group 2: Tariff Policies - Economic downturn is attributed to the current government's tariff policies, which have reached the highest average levels in over fifty years, posing significant challenges to consumers and the overall economy [3]. - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, expressed concerns about inflation and government spending, particularly the impact of import tariffs on the economy [3]. Group 3: Labor Market Concerns - Economist Thomas Simons highlighted two alarming trends in the labor market: a decline in labor participation rates among specific age groups and an increase in unemployment rates [5]. - The labor market is facing challenges with younger workers struggling to enter the workforce while older workers are retiring, leading to a potential hollowing out of the labor market [5]. - A recent poll indicated that nearly half of respondents believe the U.S. economy is worsening, with about one-third believing the country is already in a recession [5].