港股创新药震荡，“假摔”还是见顶信号？

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector experienced significant declines post-National Day holiday, with many popular stocks dropping over 7% in a single day, attributed to overseas disturbances and short-term profit-taking effects from the holiday [1][2] Market Performance - The Hong Kong innovative drug index fell by 5.84% and 3.13% on October 9 and 10, contrasting sharply with the gains made during the holiday period [2] - Despite the recent downturn, the index has doubled in value year-to-date, although it has seen a decline of over 7% in the past month [2] Fund Manager Insights - Fund managers believe the recent market fluctuations are primarily due to short-term capital movements rather than a deterioration in the industry's fundamentals [2][3] - The market's reaction aligns with historical patterns where significant gains during holidays are often followed by corrections [2] Future Catalysts - Upcoming events such as the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) annual meeting and quarterly earnings reports are expected to act as catalysts for the fourth-quarter market performance [5] - The ESMO meeting will feature 23 studies from China, which could enhance market sentiment [5] Long-term Outlook - The innovative drug market is anticipated to shift from emotion-driven recovery to fundamental-driven growth, with a focus on companies that demonstrate commercial viability and international expansion capabilities [1][4] - The total amount of out-licensing deals (BD) for Chinese innovative drugs is projected to reach $66 billion in the first half of 2025, indicating a peak in BD activity driven by multinational corporations seeking innovative pipelines [7] Investment Strategy - The investment landscape is moving towards a focus on companies with clinical value and proven performance, as the market becomes more selective [6][7] - Companies that successfully translate scientific innovation into commercial success are expected to emerge as future winners in the sector [7]