天风研究：本轮黄金大周期的黄金股最具弹性区间刚刚启动

Core Viewpoint - The current cycle of gold stocks is just beginning, showing significant elasticity as gold prices rise, with the Wande Gold Industry Index expected to increase by 38% from August 22, 2025, to September 30, 2025 [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Wande Gold Industry Index has shown a consistent correlation with gold price fluctuations, confirming the upward momentum of gold since February this year [1] - The elasticity range of gold stocks in this cycle is smaller compared to the previous gold bull market and is also less than that of the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index [1] Group 2: Valuation Perspective - During rapid increases in gold prices, the market capitalization per production is a more suitable valuation metric than dynamic or static PE ratios, as EPS predictions become distorted [1] - Taking Shandong Gold as an example, its valuation is approximately at the same level as its peak in 2022, but still has a gap compared to the highest points during the 2001-2011 gold bull market [1] Group 3: Historical Analysis - The most elastic range for gold stocks typically occurs after a confirmed upward trend in gold price central tendency [1] - Historical data shows that gold stocks often experience price increases that are more than three times the rise in spot gold prices, indicating a synchronized trend between gold stocks and gold prices [1]