宏观政策预期仍存 热卷暂区间震荡行情对待

Core Viewpoint - The hot-rolled futures market shows a slight increase in prices and a rise in open interest, indicating potential market stabilization after a period of decline [1][3]. Market Data Summary - As of the week ending October 9, hot-rolled steel production was 4.1032 million tons, a decrease of 0.0094 million tons week-on-week [2]. - Factory inventory stood at 1.0809 million tons, an increase of 0.0399 million tons week-on-week [2]. - Social inventory reached 3.5923 million tons, up by 0.2586 million tons week-on-week [2]. - Demand was recorded at 3.8047 million tons, increasing by 0.3318 million tons week-on-week [2]. - The weekly price of hot-rolled futures opened at 3,260 yuan/ton, peaked at 3,311 yuan/ton, and dipped to a low of 3,258 yuan/ton, resulting in a weekly change of 0.34% [1]. Institutional Insights - Zhongyuan Futures noted a significant accumulation of inventory, particularly in social stocks, and emphasized the need to monitor downstream demand [3]. - Jianxin Futures observed that the market for rebar and hot-rolled futures stabilized post-holiday, with expectations of a rebound in the steel market driven by changes in iron ore supply and coal prices [3].