Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the domestic market for tool steel is stabilizing and recovering, with high-end materials expected to be a profit explosion point for Tiangong International (00826) in the future [1] - Revenue forecasts for Tiangong International are projected to be 5.24 billion, 6.08 billion, and 6.93 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to be 430 million, 600 million, and 810 million RMB for the same years [1] - The report maintains a buy rating with a target price of 4.38 HKD for the next 12 months, corresponding to an 18 times PE for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 44.56% from the current price [1] Group 2 - Despite revenue pressure, Tiangong International's profitability is showing counter-cyclical growth, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 203 million RMB in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 10.4% [1] - The recovery of the domestic tool steel industry, combined with rising raw material prices, has offset short-term pressures from overseas markets, resulting in positive growth in revenue and gross profit [1] - Powder metallurgy materials are anticipated to be one of the future profit explosion points, with sales of 589 tons in the first half of 2025, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 66.4%, and a price of 149,000 RMB per ton, significantly higher than ordinary high-speed steel and tool steel products [1] Group 3 - The company has signed a long-term supply agreement with Heng Er Da, committing to supply no less than 100 tons of specialized powder high-speed steel materials annually for five years starting in 2026, totaling no less than 600 tons [1] - This agreement is expected to provide stable support for the company's future performance and further solidify its market position in the specialized powder high-speed steel segment [1] - Looking ahead, the company holds an optimistic outlook on the high-end titanium alloy business, anticipating that demand from downstream customers for new models will gradually be released [2]
第一上海：高端材料将成为天工国际(00826)未来利润爆发点 维持“买入”评级