美关税威胁再起，流动性冲击下铜铝价格回落

Group 1: Copper Market - The threat of US tariffs has resurfaced, causing a liquidity shock that led to a decline in copper prices, but the long-term upward trend remains intact [2][3] - Recent disturbances in the supply of copper from the world's second-largest copper mine and expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts previously pushed LME copper prices to $11,000 per ton and Shanghai copper prices to over ¥88,000 per ton [2][3] - On November 1, 2025, the US will impose an additional 100% tariff on all goods imported from China, which has heightened market risk aversion and led to significant liquidation of long positions, resulting in a 4.5% drop in both Shanghai and LME copper prices [2][3] Group 2: Aluminum Market - The aluminum market is also experiencing a decline due to the renewed threat of US tariffs and liquidity shocks [3] - The price of alumina has decreased by 0.68% to ¥2,930 per ton, while the main futures contract for alumina fell by 4.62% to ¥2,806 per ton [3] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has increased by 10.15% to 651,000 tons, but the demand season is expected to lead to a destocking cycle, with potential price recovery once liquidity shocks ease [3] Group 3: Lithium Market - Lithium prices are expected to rebound from the bottom as demand enters a destocking cycle during the peak season [4][5] - The price of lithium carbonate remains stable at ¥73,600 per ton, while lithium spodumene has decreased by 2.21% to $839 per ton [4][5] - The production of lithium carbonate has increased by 0.6% to 20,600 tons, and inventory has decreased by 1.5% to 134,800 tons [4][5] Group 4: Cobalt Market - The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) will implement a cobalt export quota system, which is expected to accelerate price increases [6] - The price of cobalt has risen by 4.19% to $19.90 per pound, and domestic cobalt prices have increased by 2.87% to ¥359,000 per ton [6] - The DRC's cobalt export quota for the period from October 16, 2025, to December 31, 2025, is set at 18,100 tons, which is expected to significantly narrow the surplus and potentially lead to a shortage [6]