Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-10-13 02:21Core Insights - The report from GF Securities highlights that since 2018, tariffs imposed by Trump have created disturbances, but China's manufacturing competitiveness remains resilient and cannot be easily contained or replaced [1][2] - The capital market typically experiences a one-time "provision," followed by a "rebound" as events stabilize and a "hedge" as policies warm up in response to external shocks [1] - The intrinsic safety margin of assets is a more critical pricing factor compared to external disturbances [1] Group 1 - The report maintains a medium to long-term confidence in the Chinese economy and assets, noting that by 2024, there will be 463,000 high-tech enterprises in China, 1.7 times that of 2020, with over 570 industrial companies in the global R&D investment top 2500, accounting for nearly a quarter [2] - In the event of external demand shocks, the timing of counter-cyclical policy signals is often a crucial asset pricing coordinate, with expectations of concentrated growth stabilization in Q4 if external trade conditions fluctuate [2] - It is advised to moderately enhance asset allocation "broadly" to avoid excessive unilateral asset risk exposure, as the S&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio averaged 39.2 in September, indicating a high level of intrinsic vulnerability compared to the trade war periods of 2018 and 2019 [2][3] Group 2 - The report suggests that the recent volatility in global asset classes triggered by Trump's tweets is likely a typical "TACO trade," where short-term declines provide good buying opportunities [3] - If a short-term sharp decline occurs due to liquidity shocks, the recommended sectors for allocation remain in domestic substitution related to AI computing power chips, semiconductor equipment, semiconductor lithography, and AI edge applications [3]