Core Viewpoint - The coal mining industry is experiencing a slight increase in port thermal coal prices, with a stable supply but weak demand leading to a potential inventory buildup [2][3]. Industry Status - During the week of September 26 to October 10, the port thermal coal spot price increased by 8 yuan/ton, closing at 709 yuan/ton [2]. - The average daily inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim region was 1.7673 million tons, an increase of 8,600 tons or 0.46% compared to the previous week [2]. - The average daily outflow from the Bohai Rim ports was 1.3836 million tons, a decrease of 93,000 tons or 4.7% from the previous week [2]. - The number of anchored vessels decreased by 9 to 78, a decline of 10.82% [2]. - The inventory at the Bohai Rim ports reached 25.495 million tons, an increase of 56,000 tons or 0.23% from the previous week [2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply side remains stable while demand is weak, leading to a slow inventory reduction and potential accumulation [2]. - The overall outflow from ports has declined, and inventory levels have increased, primarily due to weaker demand during the National Day holiday [2]. - Short-term coal prices are expected to remain volatile, with potential upward movement anticipated in mid-October as heating demand in northern regions begins to rise [2]. Valuation and Recommendations - The focus remains on the influx of insurance capital and the positive growth of premium income, particularly towards leading insurance companies [3]. - There is an ongoing scarcity of fixed-income assets, and resource stocks are expected to be favored in equity allocations [3]. - Core recommendations include focusing on elastic thermal coal stocks, particularly those with low valuations such as Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy [3].
节日期间需求较弱,港口煤价略有上涨 | 投研报告
Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang·2025-10-13 02:25