上财报告：房地产定位正转向“民生基石”与“创新载体”

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of the real estate market is not only a reflection of cyclical fluctuations but also a systemic issue that China must address in its transition to high-quality economic development [1] Group 1: Real Estate Market Dynamics - The urbanization rate in China has surpassed 67%, indicating a shift in the role of real estate from an "economic pillar" to a "foundation for livelihood" and an "innovation carrier" [1] - Increased household income uncertainty is identified as a trigger for issues in the real estate market, leading to a rise in precautionary savings and adjustments in household balance sheets due to the illiquid nature of housing assets [1] Group 2: Policy Recommendations - The 2025 Central Urban Work Conference emphasizes the need to construct a new model for real estate development, focusing on high-quality housing construction, urban village renovation, and the supply of affordable housing to alleviate housing difficulties for new citizens and youth [2] - Short-term measures should include expanding financing support to help real estate companies mitigate debt risks, while long-term strategies should involve the introduction of policy financial tools to support new urbanization and urban renewal [2] Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The core cities in China are transitioning to a stock market phase, with second-hand housing transactions becoming dominant, and the ratio of new housing to resident population in first-tier cities nearing levels seen in New York and Tokyo [2] - The housing consumption concept in China is undergoing significant changes, with a growing rental market and an increasing proportion of sales from existing homes; it is expected that the decline in the real estate market will narrow further by 2025, with stabilization likely after 2026 [2] Group 4: Strategic Pathways for Development - Four pathways for constructing a new real estate development model include improving the保障 housing system, promoting the construction of safe and green housing, revitalizing the stock market through urban renewal, and encouraging population return to rural areas to unlock potential in third and fourth-tier cities [3] - Emphasis on "precise policies" is crucial, advocating for demand-driven supply and the need to break administrative barriers to allocate construction land based on population movement [3] - The real estate industry should adapt to new demands such as service-oriented, green, and age-friendly housing, aiming for supply-demand matching and sustainable development through urban integration and public housing services [3]