【央行圆桌汇】美联储高官密集发声揭示政策分歧（2025年10月13日）

Global Central Bank Dynamics - Global central bank leaders will discuss stock market bubbles and potential crash risks at the IMF and World Bank's autumn meeting, with IMF President Georgieva warning that current asset valuations are nearing levels seen during the internet bubble 25 years ago, indicating that a significant market correction could harm the global economy [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has narrowed the list of candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair from 11 to 5, including current Fed governors and other prominent economic figures, with plans to further reduce the list before submitting it to President Trump [1] Federal Reserve Insights - The September meeting minutes reveal that Federal Reserve officials unanimously agree on the necessity of a rate cut due to recent weak employment data, although there are differing opinions on the future path of monetary policy [2] - Most officials believe further easing may be appropriate in the remaining months of the year, while some caution that financial conditions do not appear particularly restrictive, suggesting a need for a cautious approach [2] European Central Bank Stance - The European Central Bank's September meeting minutes indicate that current inflation levels align with medium-term targets, and there is no need for rate adjustments to intervene in market supply and demand [3] Other Central Bank Actions - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 2.5%, with expectations of a further reduction [5] - The Bank of Thailand has maintained its key rate at 1.50%, while the Polish central bank unexpectedly lowered its rate to 4.50%, indicating potential future interventions in the foreign exchange market [6] Market Observations - Analysts suggest that the current pricing in the money market anticipates the Federal Reserve will cut rates by over 100 basis points by the end of 2026, which may be overly aggressive given inflation risks [7] - Citigroup warns that a U.S. government shutdown could lead to lasting economic damage and obscure real risks, while the outlook for the euro against the dollar may improve once political turmoil in France subsides [7] Future Focus - Key events to watch include the IMF's Global Economic Outlook report and various speeches from central bank officials, which may provide further insights into monetary policy directions [9][10]