十年国债ETF（511260）盘中飘红，2018-2024年每年正收益，关税冲击下布局防御资产

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to closely monitor the progress of China-U.S. tariff negotiations, suggesting that the current threat of tariffs should be viewed as a bargaining chip rather than a definitive outcome. The likelihood of a 100% tariff being implemented is considered low, with expectations that negotiations will continue before the November 1 deadline [1]. Group 1: Tariff Impact and Market Response - The announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1 has increased short-term tariff risks, leading to heightened volatility in equity assets [1]. - There is an expectation that President Trump may choose to de-escalate tensions to prevent internal risks from spiraling out of control, suggesting a more optimistic medium-term outlook for equity assets [1]. - The market is currently experiencing a correction phase, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around the 3900-point mark post-National Day [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy and Asset Allocation - In light of market uncertainties, it is recommended to increase allocations to defensive assets [1]. - The Ten-Year Treasury ETF (511260) has shown consistent performance, with a one-year return of 5.88%, a three-year return of 16.13%, a five-year return of 22.41%, and a cumulative return of 36.68% since inception [1]. - The Ten-Year Treasury ETF has maintained positive returns for seven consecutive years from 2018 to 2024, positioning it as a potential asset allocation tool across market cycles [2]. Group 3: Unique Advantages of Ten-Year Treasury ETF - The Ten-Year Treasury ETF offers T+0 trading, allowing for same-day buying and selling, which is advantageous in a high-volatility environment [2]. - The ETF features low trading fees, enhancing capital efficiency for investors [3]. - The ETF provides transparency in holdings through daily PCF disclosures, allowing investors to track their investments easily [3]. - Investors can use the ETF for collateralized repurchase agreements, enabling them to access funds for other investment opportunities while retaining the ability to redeem the ETF later [3].