China's market rally faces test as U.S. trade rift flare: 'much more difficult couple of weeks now'

Core Viewpoint - China's stock market rebound is facing strain due to renewed U.S.-China trade tensions, which threaten investor optimism and could derail the recent rally [1][3]. Market Performance - Chinese shares recently reached multi-year highs, with the CSI 300 index rising nearly 20% and the Hang Seng Index increasing around 33% since the beginning of the year [2]. - However, both indexes experienced a decline of over 2% on a recent Monday, indicating potential instability in market sentiment [3]. Geopolitical Risks - The continuation of the market rally is contingent on stability in geopolitical risks, particularly regarding trade relations [3]. - Analysts express concerns that the re-emergence of tariff rhetoric could quickly unravel positive market sentiment [3][4]. Expectations of Trade Relations - Market expectations for a potential meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping have diminished, leading to increased uncertainty [4]. - Analysts suggest that if neither side concedes, the U.S. and Chinese economies could lead the global economy into a deep recession [5][7]. Market Conditions - Goldman Sachs highlights that the current market is "overbought," with gains concentrated in a few major stocks like Tencent, Alibaba, and NetEase, making them vulnerable to a pullback [6][8]. - The investment bank warns that the uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China relations could lead to a more negative market outcome, including the reimposition of high tariffs [6][7].