Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao·2025-10-13 04:45Core Viewpoint - The global risk aversion has led to a significant increase in gold prices, with London spot gold reaching historical highs above $4,060 per ounce, driven by economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Performance - As of October 13, 2023, London spot gold prices rose by 0.82% to $4,050.74 per ounce, with a peak of $4,060.05 per ounce [3]. - Since the beginning of October, gold prices have surged over 5%, surpassing $4,000 per ounce [6]. - COMEX gold futures also saw a rise of 1.68%, reaching $4,067.5 per ounce, with a high of $4,079.3 per ounce [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - A-share gold stocks experienced a rally, with Western Gold rising over 6%, Chifeng Gold up over 2%, and Hunan Gold increasing by over 1% due to the strong performance of gold prices [5]. - Investment banks like Goldman Sachs and UBS have noted that the appeal of gold as a defensive asset is increasing amid global economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [2][8]. Group 3: Institutional Insights - UBS's Chief Investment Officer highlighted that the record rise in gold prices reflects a significant increase in demand for defensive assets due to economic uncertainties and geopolitical changes [8]. - Various institutions have raised their gold price forecasts, with UBS predicting prices could reach $4,200 per ounce in the coming months, and Morgan Stanley forecasting $4,500 per ounce by mid-2026 [9]. - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its December 2026 gold price forecast from $4,300 to $4,900 per ounce, indicating a potential upside of approximately 23% [9][10]. Group 4: Central Bank Activities - Central banks are expected to maintain gold purchases at an average of 80 tons per month in 2025 and 70 tons in 2026, contributing significantly to gold price increases [10]. - The inflow into gold ETFs is anticipated to rise as the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 100 basis points by mid-2026, further supporting gold prices [10].