群智咨询：预计双11显示器同比增销13%

Core Insights - The article discusses the anticipated 13% year-on-year growth in online monitor sales during the 2025 Double Eleven shopping festival, despite underlying risks of a decline when considering natural time comparisons [1][12] - The transition from policy-driven growth to endogenous growth poses a challenge for the industry, highlighting the need for new growth engines in the post-subsidy era [1][17] Sales Analysis - The sales period for Double Eleven has been significantly extended, starting from October 9 and lasting over a month, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [6] - The core sales period from November 4 to November 11 is expected to account for 30% of total sales, with earlier sales phases gaining importance [6] Market Dynamics - The subsidy policy shows regional disparities, with only a few provinces like Sichuan and Fujian benefiting directly, while major economic provinces like Jiangsu and Zhejiang are excluded [2] - The overall impact of subsidies on total sales is projected to be less than 5%, but e-commerce platforms are compensating for this through their own subsidy programs [2] Pricing Trends - The average selling price (ASP) of monitors is expected to decline by 9% during Double Eleven compared to the previous promotion period, influenced by reduced subsidy support [15] - The ASP has seen fluctuations, peaking at 1543 yuan in 2021 and stabilizing around 1200 yuan in 2025, reflecting consumer value recognition and market adjustments [15] Future Outlook - The industry is shifting focus from mere sales volume to maintaining ASP while increasing revenue through technological innovation and new demand creation [17] - Niche markets such as ultra-high refresh rate monitors and professional design displays are emerging as new growth points, expanding the application scenarios of monitors [17]