日本政坛地震埋葬“高市交易”？

Core Viewpoint - Political uncertainty has become a focal point for the market, particularly following the dissolution of the ruling coalition in Japan, which has led to volatility in the stock market and currency exchange rates [1][8]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the rise of the Japanese stock market, which reached historical highs above 47,000 and 48,000 points with a peak increase of 5%, the situation changed dramatically after the announcement of the dissolution of the ruling coalition [2][3]. - The Nikkei index futures experienced a significant drop of 5% on the day of the coalition's dissolution, indicating a sharp market reaction to the political developments [7]. Group 2: Political Landscape - The formal dissolution of the "Self-Public Coalition" has created uncertainty regarding the prospects of Sanna Takachi becoming Japan's first female Prime Minister, as the election process involves a two-round voting system in the National Diet [3][5]. - The current seat distribution in the House of Representatives shows the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) holding 196 seats, while the now-independent Komeito Party has 24 seats, and the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, has 148 seats [5]. Group 3: Implications for Economic Policy - Analysts suggest that if Takachi fails to secure the Prime Minister position, it could delay the submission of the supplementary budget to the National Diet, significantly impacting economic stimulus policies planned for the fourth quarter [8]. - The market's perception of Takachi's economic policies has shifted, with concerns about extreme fiscal expansion being deemed overstated, as her stance has moved towards a more moderate and conservative approach [7].