瑞士央行重启负利率“门槛更高” 预测负利率机构从七家锐减至两家

Core Viewpoint - Economists have largely abandoned predictions of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) lowering interest rates into negative territory, with only Barclays and Bloomberg Economics forecasting a 25 basis point cut to -0.25% at the December 11 policy meeting [1] Group 1: Current Predictions - Only two institutions, Barclays and Bloomberg Economics, predict a rate cut by the SNB in December [1] - Capital Economics anticipates that any potential rate cut will occur in June of the following year [1] - Goldman Sachs and Pantheon Macroeconomics have shifted their views, now aligning with 15 other analysts who believe that zero interest rates will be the final level [1] Group 2: Historical Context - In June, the SNB's benchmark interest rate was lowered to zero, leading to seven institutions predicting a return to negative rates [1] - Prior to the September rate decision, five institutions also expected the SNB to implement negative rates [1] Group 3: SNB's Stance - SNB President Martin Schlegel emphasized that the threshold for reintroducing negative rates is significantly higher than for conventional rate cuts [1] - Schlegel noted the negative impact of the previous negative rate policy (2015-2022) on the financial system [1] Group 4: Market Influences - Analyst Jean Dalbard indicated that the foreign exchange market may ultimately compel the SNB to take action [1] - The strengthening of the Swiss franc and the impact of higher-than-expected tariffs from the U.S. on economic growth are key risks facing the SNB [1] - Dalbard predicts that if the Swiss franc continues to strengthen, the SNB may lower rates in December [1]