美国近半数州陷入经济收缩 全国性衰退风险显著上升

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is facing significant structural pressures despite a 3.8% GDP growth in Q2, with 22 out of 50 states already in recession or contraction, indicating a nationwide trend [1] Economic Conditions - Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi reported that the recession is most severe in Washington D.C. due to large-scale federal layoffs and budget cuts, affecting neighboring states like Maryland and Virginia [1] - States reliant on manufacturing, agriculture, transportation, and mining are particularly impacted by high tariff policies and restrictive immigration measures [1] - California and New York, as core economic states, are currently in a "struggling" state, with their economic stability crucial to avoiding a nationwide downturn [1] Labor Market - The U.S. labor market shows signs of "hollowing out," with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in August, the highest in nearly four years [2] - Key warning signals include a decline in labor participation rates among young college graduates and an accelerated exit of older workers from the labor market [2] - The number of retirees has surpassed the number of new college graduates, leading to a shortage of new labor [2] Consumer Confidence and Spending - The U.S. consumer confidence index fell to 94.2 in September 2025, the lowest in five months, indicating pressure on consumer spending [3] - Many middle- and low-income families are under debt pressure and experiencing slow wage growth, leading to a "barely holding on" situation [3] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut on September 17, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 4.0%-4.25% as a preventive measure against labor market deterioration [3] - Economists argue that while monetary policy can alleviate short-term pressures, it cannot offset long-term burdens from tariffs, fiscal expansion, and structural labor issues [3] Economic Forecasts - The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) has raised its growth forecasts for the U.S. economy in 2025 and 2026, expecting GDP growth of 1.8% in 2025, up from a previous estimate of 1.3% [3] - However, the forecast for job creation has been downgraded, with an expected average of only 60,000 new jobs per month in 2025, down from 87,000 [3] Inflation Outlook - NABE members predict that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index will rise by 3% in 2025 and decrease to 2.5% by the end of 2026, still above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2% [4] - The uncertainty in policy environment makes predictions for the U.S. economy in 2025 particularly challenging [4] Overall Economic Sentiment - A survey indicated that 49% of respondents believe the U.S. economy is worsening, with 33% stating the country is already in recession [4] - The U.S. economy is at a sensitive crossroads, with significant discrepancies between macro data and micro realities, compounded by policy uncertainty and structural imbalances [4]