欧洲央行降息门槛仍然很高

Core Viewpoint - The Euro is showing an upward trend against the US Dollar, with the latest exchange rate at 1.1623, reflecting a 0.07% increase. Despite a bleak economic outlook, the European Central Bank (ECB) is unlikely to cut interest rates in the coming months [1]. Economic Outlook - The Eurozone's GDP for Q3 is expected to show slight growth of approximately 0.1%, which is more optimistic than the ECB's own forecast of flat GDP for the quarter [1]. - The ECB may view the current economic weakness as temporary, primarily impacted by a significant decline in manufacturing output [1]. Technical Analysis - The Euro/USD pair experienced a short-term upward adjustment after a previous decline, breaking through four-hour resistance levels, leading to a strong closing on the last trading day [1]. - On a monthly basis, the Euro is supported at the 1.1100 level, indicating a long-term bullish outlook above this position [2]. - Weekly analysis shows that the Euro is under pressure at the 1.1680 level, which serves as a critical support and resistance point for medium-term trends [1][2]. Short-term Analysis - Daily resistance for the Euro against the Dollar is at the 1.1680 level, with ongoing pressure below this point [2]. - Short-term support is identified in the 1.1590-1.1600 range, with expectations for adjustments based on this support level [2].