需求保持扩张 微观经营趋稳——9月份我国物流业景气回升

Core Insights - The logistics industry in China showed signs of recovery in September, with a logistics prosperity index of 51.2%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.3 percentage points and maintaining a positive trend for seven consecutive months [1] Group 1: Logistics Demand and Performance - The logistics demand remains robust, with the total business volume index and new orders index increasing by 0.4 and 0.9 percentage points respectively over the past three months [1] - The new orders index stands at 53.3%, marking a month-on-month increase of 1 percentage point and remaining in the prosperity range for eight consecutive months [1] - The logistics business volume index in eastern and western regions increased by 0.4 and 0.2 percentage points respectively, indicating regional growth [1] Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - The postal and express delivery sector reported a business volume index of 70.1%, significantly higher than the overall industry level, driven by strong consumer demand during the back-to-school and travel seasons [2] - The air transport sector showed growth, with the business volume index and new orders index at 53.4% and 58.1%, reflecting increases of 0.3 and 1.2 percentage points respectively [2] - The logistics demand for energy transport, electronic components, pharmaceuticals, and durable consumer goods is improving, contributing to growth in rail, road, and air logistics [2] Group 3: Pricing and Profitability - The logistics service price index increased by 0.9 percentage points in the third quarter, with road and water transport service prices also showing recovery [2] - The main business profit index for enterprises rose by 0.5 percentage points in the third quarter, indicating a positive alignment between operational performance and profitability [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - The average business activity expectation index for the third quarter is 56%, indicating an overall expansion trend [2] - Government policies aimed at stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations are expected to support continued stability in the logistics sector [2]