Core Viewpoint - Crescat Capital warns that "speculative complacency" has led to inflated valuations of top technology stocks, surpassing levels seen during the 2000 dot-com bubble [1][2] Valuation Disparity - The enterprise value of the top 10 U.S. mega-cap stocks is now 76.8% of GDP, which is 270% higher than the 28.4% peak during the dot-com era [2] - Crescat's Chief Investment Officer emphasizes that investing in tech-dominated index funds at current valuations disregards fundamental market principles [2] Investment Strategy - Crescat advocates for a "great rotation" from overvalued AI-driven stocks to gold miners, which are seen as offering better growth potential at lower valuations [1][3] - The median earnings per share (EPS) growth for major gold producers is 129.4%, compared to 23.9% for the "Magnificent 9" AI stocks, with gold miners having a median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.2 versus 38.2 for tech stocks [3] Market Signals - The report highlights weakening internal market signals, including a bearish divergence in the Dow Jones Transportation Index and declining market breadth, indicating that a few mega-cap stocks are propping up major indices while the broader market weakens [5] Performance of Gold Miners - A list of gold miners shows significant year-to-date and one-year performance, with companies like Harmony Gold Mining Company Ltd. and Perpetua Resources Corp. showing YTD performances of 115.45% and 133.39% respectively [7] - Gold miner ETFs also demonstrate strong performance, with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF up 114.43% year-to-date [8]
Tech Stocks Now Valued 270% Higher Than At Dot-Com Peak: Analyst Says Market Shows A 'Near-Total Disregard For Risk' - Anglogold Ashanti (NYSE:AU)