HF Sinclair(US:DINO) 智通财经网·2025-10-13 08:32Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has upgraded its earnings forecast for HF Sinclair Corp for Q3 2025, citing improved refining margins and increased throughput post-maintenance, leading to better-than-expected overall profitability [1][5]. Refining Business - Morgan Stanley predicts a 5% quarter-over-quarter increase in the benchmark crack spread, with total throughput estimated at 675 kbpd, close to market consensus of 677 kbpd [2]. - The refining segment's EBITDA is expected to be approximately $531 million, surpassing market consensus of $505 million and up from about $476 million in Q2 [2]. - The refining gross margin is projected at $16.68 per barrel, compared to the market consensus of $16.06 per barrel, with a capture rate expected to be around 59%, down from 67% in Q2 [2]. Lubricants & Specialties - The lubricants and specialties segment is expected to see a rebound in sales post-maintenance, with an EBITDA forecast of approximately $79 million, close to market expectations of $81 million and significantly higher than $55 million in Q2 [2]. Renewables Business - The renewables segment is anticipated to experience a decline in benchmark profit metrics, with EBITDA losses projected at $11 million, worse than the market consensus of a $9 million loss [3]. Midstream and Marketing - The midstream business is expected to remain stable, with Q3 EBITDA projected at approximately $113 million, aligning with market expectations [3]. - The marketing segment is forecasted to maintain steady seasonal sales and margins, with an EBITDA estimate of around $24 million, close to market consensus of $26 million [3]. Overall Financial Outlook - For the full year 2025, adjusted EBITDA is expected to be $1.975 billion, a 2% increase from previous estimates [4]. - The operating EPS for 2025 is projected at $3.82, up from a prior estimate of $3.62, reflecting a 6% increase [4]. - Free cash flow for 2025 is anticipated at $941 million, a 4% increase from earlier forecasts [4]. Stock Performance - Despite a prolonged downturn in international oil prices, HF Sinclair's stock has surged, primarily due to improved refining margins and diversified business operations, with a year-to-date stock price increase of 50% [5][6]. - The company's stock is currently trading around $50.59, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 index [5].