智通财经网·2025-10-13 08:32Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) with a target price of HKD 543, citing liquidity expectations from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, continuous inflow of southbound funds, and valuation advantages as key factors supporting the high activity level in the Hong Kong stock market in Q4 [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The Hong Kong stock market has shown a recovery in valuation since April, driven by high average daily trading volume and sustained buying from southbound funds [1] - As of October 10, 2025, HKEX's PE (TTM) stands at 36.49x, positioned at the 72.15%, 71.85%, and 47.43% percentiles over the past 1, 3, and 5 years respectively [1] - The company is expected to achieve high year-on-year growth in Q3 earnings, with projected revenues of HKD 79.11 billion (up 47.26%) and net profit of HKD 48.24 billion (up 53.38%) [2] Group 2: Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be HKD 286.25 billion, HKD 303.21 billion, and HKD 306.75 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.94%, 5.93%, and 1.17% [2] - Net profit forecasts for the same years are HKD 179.02 billion, HKD 194.44 billion, and HKD 198.57 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 40.88%, 8.62%, and 2.13% [2] Group 3: Supporting Factors - The Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy, including interest rate cuts, is expected to enhance liquidity in emerging markets, providing support for the Hong Kong stock market [2] - Southbound funds have seen a net inflow exceeding HKD 1 trillion since the beginning of 2025, driven by the low valuation of Hong Kong stocks and liquidity spillover from the A-share market [3] - The valuation of the Hang Seng Index remains attractive, with a PE-TTM of approximately 11.95x, which is at the 64% percentile over the past 20 years, highlighting the "valuation pit" effect of Hong Kong stocks compared to the CSI 300's 14.24x [3]