惠理基金：地缘冲突下避险资产受追捧 料投资者继续增持黄金对冲风险

Core Insights - The global trade and geopolitical order continues to face challenges since the Trump administration, leading to increased investor interest in gold as a hedge against systemic risks [1][2] - The U.S. Federal Reserve is entering a rate-cutting cycle, with high valuations in U.S. equities and concerns over potential AI bubbles and rising U.S. debt, prompting investors to increase gold holdings [1][2] Group 1: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has eased, but concerns over a U.S. government shutdown and its impact on economic activity have heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold, which has reached a historical high of $4,000 per ounce [1] - The U.S. federal government faced a shutdown, leading to operational disruptions and delays in agricultural subsidies, which may cause market volatility when key economic data is eventually released [1] Group 2: Market Trends and Investor Behavior - Despite ongoing inflation pressures, rising unemployment rates, and recession concerns, investors are increasingly turning to gold and other value-preserving assets [2] - Recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes indicate a consensus among officials for further rate cuts by year-end, enhancing market expectations and boosting gold performance [2] - Historical data shows a correlation between the speed of rate cuts and the rapid increase in gold prices, with gold outperforming other assets during such periods [2] Group 3: Central Bank Actions and Demand - Central banks are structurally increasing their gold reserves to reduce reliance on dollar-denominated assets, with the People's Bank of China purchasing gold for 11 consecutive months, indicating a strategic buying trend [2] - The recent surge in gold ETF inflows reflects a collaborative effect between institutional and retail investors, with central bank demand being a major catalyst for record gold price increases [2]