Group 1 - The core issue in the pork market is the imbalance between supply and demand, leading to a significant drop in both futures and spot prices, with futures prices hitting a historical low of 11,125 yuan/ton, down 21% year-to-date and over 40% from last year's peak [2][3] - As of October 13, the national pork spot price has fallen to 10.92 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.26 yuan/kg from before the National Day holiday, reflecting a year-on-year drop of 39.43% [3][4] - The high inventory of breeding sows, which stood at 40.62 million heads as of the end of September, continues to exert downward pressure on prices, with no immediate signs of improvement in supply conditions [3][4] Group 2 - The pork industry is currently in a phase of capacity reduction, but the progress is slower than expected, as indicated by the 28.6% cumulative price drop since July [4][5] - Major pork companies are facing operational challenges, with sales prices and revenues declining significantly in September, prompting some to increase slaughter volumes to compensate for lower prices [5][6] - Companies like Wen's Foodstuffs and New Hope reported increases in slaughter volumes in September, with Wen's selling 3.33 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 32.46%, despite achieving the lowest sales prices of the year [5][6] Group 3 - Muyuan Foods has adjusted its breeding sow inventory to 3.305 million heads and is not considering adding new sows in the short term, while also reducing the average weight of slaughtered pigs [6][7] - Smaller companies like Zhengbang Technology have seen significant increases in slaughter volumes, with a year-on-year growth of 107.64% in September, but overall revenue for listed companies remains under pressure due to lower prices [7][10] - The outlook for pork prices remains pessimistic, with expectations of continued supply pressure and weak terminal demand, making it difficult to reverse the current supply-demand imbalance [7][10]
猪肉旺季不旺陷入困境 期现价格齐跌养殖端亏损
Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-10-13 11:29