美股盛宴下的危局：估值逼近完美 盈利预期却已暗流涌动

Group 1 - Analysts are showing signs of fatigue regarding corporate earnings optimism, indicating potential obstacles for the stock market's upward momentum during the earnings season [1] - The Citigroup index tracking adjustments in U.S. corporate earnings expectations has leveled off for the first time since August, while the expected P/E ratio for the S&P 500 has reached 22, above the 10-year average of nearly 19 [1] - Earnings impact on stock prices is expected to be differentiated and severe, with the market currently in a state of "near-perfect pricing" [1] Group 2 - The proportion of companies exceeding earnings expectations this quarter may be lower than the previous quarter due to the intensified impact of tariff policies [2] - Current analyst expectations for U.S. corporate earnings growth year-over-year is 7.4%, the lowest growth rate in two years [2] - Market sentiment regarding earnings for large-cap companies in the S&P 500 is at a critical turning point [2] Group 3 - The U.S. stock market reached historical highs driven by optimism in the AI sector and robust economic performance, but market sentiment reversed due to tariff threats from Trump against China [3] - U.S. stock futures showed a rebound trend as Trump signaled a willingness to reach an agreement with China [3]